Donald Trump will be the US President again in January, 2025. His last turn as President was decisive and detrimental to international development. He’s promised even more damaging changes this time.
How will the second Trump Administration priorities and prerogatives impact the State Department, USAID, DFC, and the entire foreign assistance community?
USAID Business Forecast
Let’s start with the USAID Business Forecast. A new President and USAID Administrator can quickly impact the direction of US foreign assistance by promoting or delaying procurement. Hence the forecast is a leading indicator of Executive leadership influence.
Devex says the current USAID Business Forecast shows $31.1 billion in forthcoming procurement, with $4.6 billion in new opportunities — $3.1 billion in Washington and $1.5 billion in USAID missions. My analysis shows three key acquisition and assistance trends. I’ve added potential Trump Administration changes based on multiple discussions with leading development decision makers.
USAID Procurement Sector Trends
The dominant sectors represented in the business forecast highlight key areas of USAID’s focus for future funding. Global Health is the most prominent sector with 74 awards, showcasing USAID’s strong commitment to ongoing global health challenges like HIV/AIDS and reproductive health.
Other notable sectors include:
- Democracy, Human Rights, and Governance (36 awards): Indicating an increased emphasis on supporting democratic institutions and human rights in various regions.
- Economic Growth and Trade (22 awards): Showing a focus on fostering economic development and improving trade opportunities in developing countries.
- Environment and Global Climate Change (22 awards): Reflecting the growing need for climate adaptation and mitigation programs, aligning with global priorities on sustainability and addressing environmental challenges.
- Education, HIV/AIDS, and Agriculture and Food Security: Smaller but still significant sectors, highlighting USAID’s diverse focus on development issues across a broad range of areas.
Trump Administration Changes
Everyone I spoke with expects major sector focus changes once a new USAID Administrator is sworn in. Or maybe even before then, as lower level political appointees start making decisions, or career staff make preemptive choices based on Presidential prerogatives.
- DRG will have a clear change in focus from promoting democratic freedoms and combating mis- dis- and malinformation, to a focus on free speech that recasts content moderation and fact-checking as censorship. We can look to
TwitterX as a model agreeable to Trump, not that otherunsocial media is any better. - Environment, and especially Climate, will be de-prioritized and maybe even dropped from core focus areas. Trump has already promised to remove the USA from the 2015 Paris climate agreement, and could remove us from the 1992 U.N. treaty that underpins the annual COP global climate negotiations.
- Reproductive health will suffer with a resurgence of the Global Gag Rule and potentially constraints on vaccine delivery and immunizations. My contacts say Robert F. Kennedy Jr is actually too radical for Senate confirmation, but to expect to see Roger Severino, who wrote the HHS portion of Project 2025, to lead HHS and gut the CDC, NIH, and anything related to abortions.
Anticipated USAID Award Release Trends
There is a clear spike in award release activity expected toward the second half of the FY25 fiscal year, especially in September 2025, with 50 awards expected to be released.
Other months with significant activity include December (22 awards) and June (29 awards). This indicates that the end of the calendar year and fiscal year will see a surge in awards, aligning with typical government contracting cycles where funding decisions and awards are often finalized before fiscal deadlines.
Smaller peaks are also observed in February (20 awards) and April (19 awards), suggesting that while the bulk of the awards will be released later in the year, there is a steady flow of opportunities throughout.
Trump Administration Changes
Expect a major slow-down in award releases, especially large awards from USAID/Washington. Administrator Power will probably leave in early January (if not before) and USAID will be adrift for a while – it is not seen as high on Trump’s list of government agencies. In fact, it may be downgraded from its current status and further folded into the State Department, which may also see funding cuts under Mark Rubio, who is to be Secretary of State.
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Until there is a new Administrator, expect few if any major USAID/Washington procurement actions. I’m hearing March or April as the best guess for when we’ll get a new Administrator, but no clue on who. Do you have ideas?
USAID Geographic and Country Trends
Geographically, there are 179 Mission-led awards in low-to-middle-income countries in the Business Forecast. The Washington-based awards (37) indicate activities supporting overall program management, research, and technical support. USAID Bureaus are also on the Forecast, including Democracy, Human Rights, and Governance and Resilience, Environment, and Food Security (REFS).
Trump Administration Changes
I’ve been told that Ukraine funding will have a drastic reduction, but no consensus on changes to other countries’ funding, besides less funding overall. Typically, its more difficult to redirect Mission activities as they often have independent priorities that respond to country needs. Still, do expect a return to the “Journey to Self-Reliance” unifying principle
There certainly will be less funding for the United Nations and its many programs, like WFP and UNICEF. Trump choose Elise Stefanik as ambassador to the United Nations. She recently called for a complete reassessment of USA funding for the United Nations and blocked USA funding for UN humanitarian aid to Palestinians.
Funding for multi-laterals like the World Bank, IADB, and even the Global Fund could see reductions as Trump moves to an America First positioning.
What Do You Think Will Happen?
Let me know your thoughts in the comments section. How will Trump impact aid? Will it be for the better, or is this the start of another dark four years in development?
Wayan—
I thought I would spend a few minutes and have a look at the 920 page Project 25 document, written by hundreds of conservatives. While the document is something that Trump has disavowed, it is still likely that many in his new administration may still try to implement some of it recommendations.
John
As far as USAID is concerned, according to Project 2025, “Wasteful budget increases requested by the Biden administration and appropriated by Congress have outstripped USAID’s capacity to spend funds responsibly, and U.S. foreign aid has been transformed into a massive and open ended global entitlement program captured by—and enriching—the progressive Left.
Under the Trump Administration, USAID focused on ending the need for foreign aid by placing countries onto a Journey to Self-Reliance. The Administration restructured the agency to reflect this strategic approach to development, streamlined procurement procedures to diversify its partner base, increased awards to cost-effective local (including faith-based) organizations, and improved internal governance. It instituted pro-life and family-friendly policies. It promoted international religious freedom as a pillar of the agency’s work and built up an unprecedented genocide-response infrastructure.
Upon taking office, President Biden issued executive orders to “put the climate crisis at the center of U.S. foreign policy and national security” and mitigate “the devastating inequalities that intersect with gender, race, ethnicity, and economic security.” USAID subsequently declared itself “a climate agency” and redirected its private-sector engagement strategy—teaming with America’s corporate sector to wean countries off foreign aid through private investment and trade—to support the Administration’s global policy to “transition from fossil fuels to renewable energy.” The Administration has incorporated its radical climate policy into every USAID initiative. It has joined or funded international partnerships dedicated to advancing the aims of the Paris Climate Agreement and has supported the idea of giving trillions of dollars more in aid transfers for “climate reparations.”
USAID should cease its war on fossil fuels in the developing world and support the responsible management of oil and gas reserves as the quickest way to end wrenching poverty and the need for open-ended foreign aid. The next conservative Administration should rescind all climate policies from its foreign aid programs (specifically USAID’s Climate Strategy 2022–2030); shut down the agency’s offices, programs, and directives designed to advance the Paris Climate Agreement; and narrowly limit funding to traditional climate mitigation efforts. USAID resources are best deployed to strengthen the resilience of countries that are most vulnerable to climatic shifts. The agency should cease collaborating with and funding progressive foundations, corporations, international institutions, and NGOs that advocate on behalf of climate fanaticism.
Partnering and procurement reform was a pillar of the Trump Administration’s effort to secure better development results, cut costs, and advance the Journey to Self-Reliance strategy of exiting countries from aid. In December 2018, USAID launched its first Acquisition and Assistance Strategy to streamline procurement processes; introduce innovation into its programming; and diversify its partner base away from large, expensive, and partisan implementers. The strategy counted on local NGOs, including faith-based entities already on the ground, to provide the agency with less costly and more effective alternatives to the aid giants. The strategy also prioritized global partnerships with the private sector—corporations, investors, diasporas, and private philanthropies—the source of real capital investment, innovation, and efficiencies that can maximize the impact of taxpayer dollars. Under the Biden Administration, despite rhetoric to the contrary, the aid industrial complex has recaptured the agency and stifled further reforms.”
Using “gender” anywhere will be forbidden. Maybe the about face on gender equality and inclusion won’t affect the forecast deeply, but it will affect how we design projects and write proposals for USAID without giving up ground on progress made. GESI will be replaced with women, children, and families. Not even close to the same thing!