ICTworks

The novel coronavirus pandemic has an immense impact on healthcare across the African continent.  South Africa in particular has become a viral hot spot, with over 600,000 cases of COIV-19 and 12,000 deaths.

COVID-19 is also impacting economic livelihoods across the continent. The World Bank estimates that agricultural production in Africa could contract by 7%, directly impacting family incomes and their investment in education, health, and other necessities. Many poor and marginalized communities across the developing world may now fear hunger as a greater or more immediate threat than the coronavirus.

What is COVID-19’s Food Security Impact in Africa?

Viamo asked 1,500 users of their 3-2-1 Service in the Democratic Republic of Congo, Madagascar, Malawi, Rwanda, and Tanzania a set of 12 separate questionnaires, each addressing a specific COVID-related topic, including:

• Knowledge of COVID-19;
• Attitudes towards the pandemic;
• Preventive behaviors;
• Impact on food security, income

Here are 4 key takeaways on food security and economic impacts from their survey conducted in May 2020, a subset of findings from their full survey results.

1) COVID-19 has hit households’ finances significantly. 41% claim minor to major reductions in income across the six countries. The causes are varied; lockdown policies are affecting 34% of respondents, while business operations, restricted work hours, loss of customers and loss of job impact 16% of households.

2) The food security situation is alarming. 28% of the population surveyed had to reduce portion sizes and more than 22% had to skip meals in the last 7 days. This points to nearly a quarter of households surveyed struggling to meet the most basic needs, and likely points to negative consequences in terms of health, education, and well-being.

3) Access to basic supplies such as food and soap is a serious issue. 53% of households report challenges. The main causes appear to be elevated item prices (44%) and item availability (33%), as opposed to lock-down policies (11%) or fear of contagion (12%).

4) The potential impact of lost income is considerable. 32% of respondents indicated that if they were to lose all income they would only have the ability to pay for essentials like food and rent for less than one week. Another 33% indicated that they have less than one month of savings to fall back on. This has important implications for how long a lock-down can be sustained.

How is COVID-19 Impacting Rural Communities?

In March, as Kenya shut down much of its economy due to COVID-19, the General Equilibrium research team started surveying 11,000 households in Western Kenya that received GiveDirectly unconditional cash transfers 5 years ago.

Their survey results are a unique opportunity to hear directly from rural residents in an African country on:

• How has COVID-19 affected a rural, developing economy?
• How deep is the COVID-19 recession, and how is it changing over time?
• How are rural families living in poverty affected by the pandemic?

1) COVID-19 caused a precipitous drop in overall economic activity. Early results show that sales by businesses gradually fall by 55% across all sectors until early May, compared to the pre-COVID average. Although a tentative rebound happened in recent weeks, sales remained 40% below their pre-pandemic value in mid-June.

2) When businesses close, workers lose jobs. Before the pandemic, roughly 2% of people would lose their jobs in a given month in this region. During the pandemic months of March and April, layoffs spike, with up to 8% losing their jobs (mostly due to businesses closing)

3) Families are earning less. Shuttered businesses are affecting household income as wage earnings drop abruptly at the beginning of the lockdown.

4) Families are buying less food. Over the first 8 weeks of the lockdown, spending on food drops by 45% compared to the pre-COVID average. The number of days children miss meals doubles.

Where is Food Insecurity a Serious Problem?

Food shocks in Nigeria threaten to exacerbate food insecurity, particularly in the north where continued political instability and rising violence is exacerbating the COVID-19 pandemic and leading to an impending rice shortage. We can use the Fraym Localized Food Insecurity Index for Zamfara State to find 100,000 people that are living in households relying heavily rice production for food and income, at risk for food insecurity.

Communities between Talata Mafara and Bakura score between 80 and 85 on Fraym’s Index, or 10 to 15 points higher than the state average of 69 as rice prices have risen more than 15% between March and June 2020. Households in these communities will have their food purchasing power diminished while import restrictions prevent farmers from obtaining inputs to plant rice, such as fertilizer and seeds.

Further, with tensions escalating due to farmer-herder conflicts and increasing infiltration from Islamic extremists in northern Nigeria, this instability will only serve to increasingly disrupt planting and harvesting cycles. Securing market access and providing food aid relief to these households will be critical to reducing the destructive impact of COVID-19-induced food insecurity.

What is AgTech’s COVID-19 Digital Response?

Food security and food system disruptions have a much larger economic impact in Africa where farming accounts for 60% of total employment. Agriculture technology and knowledge management solutions offer intriguing potential for COVID-19 Digital Response.

Across the continent, several initiatives are introducing new practices, improving access to inputs, reducing barriers to finance, and increasing resilience of smallholder farmers and their agricultural value chains. For example:

• Text messaging via SMS/IVR or WhatsApp can reach farmers where they are with vital information, and Facebook Groups can connect them with their peers.
• Audio games, community video, and FM radio can connect them with trusted sources of knowledge to build their capacity to use inputs and manage crops.
• Equipment rentals, digital identities and digital financial services can expand their incomes and increase their resilience to financial shocks.
• And satellite mapping, with geospatial analysis, can bring big data solutions to farm-sized problems for farmers, policy makers and the private sector.

What ICT4Ag innovations are you working on that can support smallholder farmers today? Or which interventions excite you about their potential? Please share your thoughts in the comments!